1.32pm: Alan Johnson has been busy this morning. He was touring the television studios first thing publicising the new clampdown on dangerous dogs. Then he gave a speech on crime and antisocial behaviour that he used to describe the Conservative claim that Britain has a "broken society" as a "big fat lie". And now he's about to put the boot in even more. He'll be hosting a press conference at Labour's HQ where he will apparently be urging us "to take a long, hard look at the Tories' policies on crime".
Chris Grayling, the shadow home secretary, launched a pre-emptive strike last night. He released some figures apparently showing that violent crime has increased by 44% since Labour came to power. The method used to record official crime statistics was changed in 2002 and last month the Tories got into trouble because they issued a leaflet comparing pre-2002 crime figures with post-2002 – even though any expert will tell you that such a comparison is not valid.
This time round, Grayling got someone to validate his figures. He consulted statisticians working for the House of Commons library and he even got the UK Statistics Authority to send him a letter saying the Commons library gave "sound professional statistical advice". Using Home Office figures suggesting that the new methodology had inflated the violent crime statistics by 23%, the Commons library worked out that there would have been 618,417 violent crimes recorded in 1998-99 if the current system had been in use. Last year 887,942 violent crimes were recorded.
But this wasn't good enough for the UK Statistics Authority. On Monday Sir Michael Scholar, the authority's chair, wrote to Grayling, saying that the Commons library figures did not give the full picture. The letter, which is on the authority's website, says:
A more balanced commentary on national trends in violent crime would, in the view of the authority, also make reference to the estimates given in the British Crime Survey, which in our view provide a more reliable measure of the national trend over time.
The BCS, which measures crime by surveying people and asking them if they have been a victim, shows that violent crime has gone down by 41% since 1997. But the Tories believe that the recorded crime figures are more reliable because the BCS does not include offences like gun crime, knife crime or rape.
The press conference starts at 2pm.
2.02pm: I'm at Labour HQ now and I've just been reading the full text of the speech Johnson delivered earlier. In it he said that he had written to Sir Michael Scholar today pointing out the "contempt with which his edict [about crime figures - see 1.32pm] has been treated" by Grayling.
2.10pm: We're about to start. We've been handed a three-page press release. Mostly it's devoted to criticism of the Conservative plans to scale down the DNA database.
2.12pm: Harriet Harman, Labour's deputy leader, comes onto the platform to open the press conference. She says we are here to "take another look" at the Tories. Labour policies are producing results, she says. Rape convictions have risen by 45% over the last 10 years.
On DNA, she says the DNA database has allowed "cold case" crimes to be solved.
She's going to show us a video that will be used in Labour campaigning.
She introduces Alan Johnson.
2.15pm: Johnson says that 20 years ago people would have seen the Tories as the party of law and order and Labour as more concerned with civil rights. That has now changed, he says.
He mentions various Tory votes against tough crime measures, such as David Cameron's vote against a measure to allow the police to take DNA samples from people arrested of a recordable offence.
On DNA, the Tories are committed to the so-called "Scottish model" - ie, the retention rules introduced by the Scottish executive as their attempt to bring in the DNA database into line with human rights law. Johnson says that this policy - which would only allow DNA to be held for three years - is not supported by research. Johnson says that Labour's proposal - for DNA to be retained for six years - is more sensible in the light of research about re-offending.
2.20pm: Questions. The first is to Harman. Does she feel uncomfortable, as a former civil rights campaigner, not being on the civil rights side of this argument?
No, says Harman. She says believes DNA evidence is particularly important in relation to sexual offences.
Q: But where does she draw the line?
Harman says it's about securing convictions.
Johnson says DNA evidence can be used to prove people innocent.
He says the evidence suggests DNA should be kept for six years.
There's no evidence for three years. Three years was just plucked out of the air.
2.24pm: Q: Would "hundreds of murderers and rapists" walk free under the Tory plans? (It's a question from the Daily Mirror.)
Johnson says the number in the Labour press release - 23 murderers or rapists going free in the last year alone if the Tory policies had been in force - is about right.
2.26pm: On crime figures (see 1.32pm), Johnson says the Tories introduced the British Crime Survey. He says the UK Statistics Authority describes it as a more reliable indicator over the long term.
Last month the Tories were claiming violent crime had gone up by about 70%, he says. Now they are saying 44%. It's gone down 30% in a month, he jokes.
He explains why he thinks Grayling's methodology is wrong. The 23% figure used by Grayling and the Commons library was based on figures for one year. It did not properly measure how the new methodology changed the figures.
Johnson says "however you cut the figures" violent crime is down.
2.30pm: Q: Are you playing politics with the crime figures?
No, says Johnson.
It's the Tories who have been talking about a 70% increase in violent crime.
What I am saying is we are entitled to stand on our record ... If you are going to have an honest debate with the public, you cannot ignore the British Crime Survey.
2.32pm:Q: Is David Cameron 'the burglar's friend"?
Johnson says that when asked recently about giving prisoners the vote, he joked that he did not want to because they would all vote Tory.
Asked again if he is saying the Tories support criminals, Johnson says: "That's my answer."
Q: Why are the Tories ahead on law and order?
Johnson says the Tories were always traditionally ahead of law and order. But the ICM poll in the News of the World showed them just nine points ahead.
He also says the public does not really understand what the Tory policies are on law and order.
2.36pm: Q: Why has it taken Lord Paul so long to say he would give up his non-dom status?
Harman says the Lord Paul case is quite different from the Ashcroft case. Ashcroft gave undertakings about his tax status. Cameron appears to have been misled.
I think that the issues are completely different. One looks ahead to changing the law. The other is a fundamental question of judgment.
2.38pm: Q: Is being on the DNA database a civic duty? Should the cabinet volunteer their DNA?
Johnson says there's a difference between the government's policy and making being on the DNA database a civic duty.
Saudia Arabia is moving towards that policy, he says. But he cannot see Britain following.
2.40pm: Q: Does Harman now know if Labour takes money from non-doms? (At the weekend she was unable to say whether various donors were non-doms.)
Harman says she pointed out that Labour accepted donations that were legal.
Q: On dangerous dogs, why should the "little old lady" have to pay insurance to cover the cost of irresponsible pet owners?
Johnson says the plans he has announced today are going out to consultation. Some ideas will survive the consultation; some won't.
2.42pm: Q: Does the Facebook murder concern Johnson?
Johnson says Merseyside police are looking into what went wrong.
The child exploitation and online protection centre needs to consider if there are any more measures it can take to protect children.
In a number of areas we need to look at whether there's more we can do to protect young girls like Ashleigh.
Parents need to monitor their children too, he says.
2.45pm: That's it. I'll flag up the main points in a moment.
In his final answer Johnson mentioned the possibility of installing some kind of alarm indicating when a known paedophile goes online. This attracted a flutter of interest, but afterwards a Johnson aide appeared to stress that this was all highly speculative. It's "some way off", he said (with a sense of understatement, I think.)
So, not story there. And no real story in any of it. But I'll post some conclusions in a moment.
3.14pm: I've just seen a full copy of the letter Johnson has sent to Sir Michael Scholar today (see 2.02pm). Here's the key quote:
I have no doubt in my mind that [Grayling] is deliberately misleading the public about violent crime for political advantage.
3.23pm: The Labour video is on the party's website now. I was too busy typing to pay full attention when they were playing it in the press conference. But I've watched it again and I have to say that - as these things go - it's quite good. If you watch it, you'll see why one journalist told Johnson he seemed to be describing Cameron as "the burglar's friend".
3.26pm: Here are the main points from this afternoon.
• Johnson claimed that 23 serious crimes would have gone unsolved last year if the government had adopted the restrictions on the DNA database proposed by the Conservatives.
• He claimed that evidence about re-offending supported the case for DNA being retained for six years. (The government plan - see here for more details.) He said three years - the figure used in Scotland - had been "plucked out of the air".
This DNA issue is an interesting one, and we'll almost certainly here a lot more about it as the campaign goes on. Gordon Brown made a speech about it last week. It did not get much coverage, because it coincided with the announcement about Lord Ashcroft's non-dom status, but it included a powerful attack on the Tories. As Paul Waugh pointed out, Brown used it to introduce a Willie Horton figure into the election debate.
One other thing: I haven't seen Johnson at a news conference like this for some time and I had forgotten how accomplished he was. He's got the knack of being able to sound reasonable - a surprisingly rare skill in politics, and an important one. If I were Gordon Brown, I would be putting him up more often.
That's it. Thanks for the comments.
4.30pm Update: Chris Grayling, the shadow home secretary, has issued a comment on the press conference:
We will take no lessons on law and order from a government that let 80,000 prisoners out of jail early leaving them free to commit some horrendous crimes, including three murders, when they should have still been behind bars. Gordon Brown's administration has been soft on crime and soft on the causes of crime. No amount of political rhetoric will change that.
Comments in chronological order (Total 99 comments)
9 March 2010 1:45PM
Perhaps also interesting to know whether the BCS interview in areas where there has not suddenly been a hugely increased effort to fight crime but go around polling randomly.
Will be interesting to see what a former worker with the postal service that has about the lowest % of automatic sorting in western europe comes up with.
9 March 2010 1:47PM
This comment has been removed by a moderator. Replies may also be deleted.
9 March 2010 1:56PM
This is the correct subject for this fool to be waffling on about - he, and his corrupt Party, have taken UK to the dogs in 12 years - must b a record. Printing money, HUGE debts, 2 wars, and he talks about DOGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! F.F.`SAKE U CAN NOT MAKE IT UP.
9 March 2010 1:57PM
At least disgraced Oberguppenfuhrer Smith of the Broon SS had a bit of sinister air of brutality about her - Alan Johnson seems like a bit of bumbler, with a mind like plasticine mousetrap. Tough on dogs, tough on the owners of dogs, eh?
Spare us the usual waffle and lies dressed up as statistics, and let's see some practical examples of Labour's claims. Why doesn't Johnson and the rest of the cabinet stroll around any one of London's dodgier zones - like Chatsworth Road in Hackney - any evening after 9pm..?
(Homerton Hospital is handily very close...)
9 March 2010 2:00PM
In Brown's spirit of 'fairness', I'm sure Alan Johnson will be fair and unbiased in his portrayal of Tory policy.
9 March 2010 2:03PM
Wow. Seven weeks of nonentities like expenses cheat Chris Grayling spouting cherry-picked statistics and going on and on and on about how awful "Broken Britain" is.
Please, please, please just f*cking kill me now.
9 March 2010 2:04PM
This comment has been removed by a moderator. Replies may also be deleted.
9 March 2010 2:05PM
The only question you need to ask is why they changed the way crime is recorded - it is straight out of the yes minister playbook. If you you cannot improve the thing improve the figures.
If you consider what political polling has shown - it is that public sector employed, labour supporters are more likely to respond to a survey. People with buy in to the system are more likely to respond to a survey. And no matter how much you try you cannot seperate the political from the personal.
As for dangerous dogs - there is no such thing as dangerous dogs (that is they are all dangerous), but there are dangerous owners. What is the Labour solution - a tax on all responsible dog owners - do we realy think the people who illegally own pit bulls are going to pay insurance on them - it beggars belief the stupidity of this suggestion.
9 March 2010 2:06PM
Ah look - just 10 minutes in and 'GeorgeLloyd' has already compared Gordon Brown to a Nazi.
I would say grow up, but he's probably about 59 :(((((
9 March 2010 2:11PM
This is a good line of attack from Johnson/Labour. It not only exposes Tory problems with stats and policies; it also evokes the traditional (and correct) image of the uncaring, authoritarian, Conservative Party. ( Remember? Riots on the streets and milk stolen from children... )
9 March 2010 2:12PM
WHO would u believe - a member of this Govt which has told lies for 12 years or a Tory - no contest - Tory wins hands down. Anyway, Liebour have taken UK to the dogs in 12 years so he can feel at home talking about this subject.
9 March 2010 2:12PM
This comment has been removed by a moderator. Replies may also be deleted.
9 March 2010 2:15PM
Ask the doctors at A&E about crime - they sew up the wounds and plaster the broken bones.
Who actually bothers to report a crime?
Teenagers don't, they don't even tell their parents if they're assaulted, most rape victims don't because they can't face the police interrogation, burglary isn't investigated, damage to cars is claimed on insurance and not recorded, most domestic violence cases don't make it to court, violence on school playgrounds goes unrecorded, bullying is out of control the poor suffer the most and they don't go any where near a police station for fear of being arrested.
The CPS doesn't even look at most cases, we all know that in our cities there is more crime, but people just look the other way
9 March 2010 2:16PM
How telling it is that the rather significant point that the new system doesn't include gun crime, knife crime or rape is tucked in at the very end... So violent crime has gone up. Massively. And no mention of why Labour changed the system in the first place (to fiddle the figures).
9 March 2010 2:19PM
Breaking3, the British Crime Survey isn't based on recorded crime. All those things you mention would show up in it.
9 March 2010 2:19PM
This comment has been removed by a moderator. Replies may also be deleted.
9 March 2010 2:21PM
AJayC, the change of recording increased the number of crimes. That isn't a very clever way to "fiddle" the figures.
9 March 2010 2:24PM
@SirJoshuaReynolds
9 Mar 2010, 2:19PM
Many crimes are silent; the victims of violent crime put their ordeal to the back of their mind for fear of remembering.
These crimes will never be recorded the British Crime Survey is a total wwaste of money - have they every asked any of us about violent crime?
9 March 2010 2:27PM
I'm guessing the Conservative supporting posters above are worried by this fresh attack on the hapless Mr Grayling and the Tories' shambolic crime policies and scurrilous scaremongering, judging by the trashing, confusion and obfuscation that went up before Mr Johnson had even begun speaking.
Glad to see Labour fighting back and taking the Conservatives to task on policy, and also gaining enough confidence to start pointing out some of the Government's successes of the past 13 years...
9 March 2010 2:29PM
Johnson is talking absolute shit about keeping DNA samples. If you're arrested and there's no evidence against you, why should you be kept on the DNA database? Apparently complying with the law "isn't supported by the evidence"- whatever that means.
On this policy, the Tories are better.
9 March 2010 2:32PM
Overalll crime has come down, not as a function of policing and certainly not as a function of policy, just as a consequence of economics.
For example if a colour tv used to cost 2 weeks take home pay (credit not available) and you could selll a dodgy one for 33% of one weeks take home pay then there was a market and the returns for burglary could be weighed against the risk.
Now a colour tv costs .5 of one weeks take home pay and credit is available the resale value of a stolen tv is £0, hence making the return not worth the risk of a burglary conviction.
This goes pretty much for all burglary and other acquisitive crime where resale is the driver.
It's the same with wages robbery, very few people are paid in cash therefore fewer cash transits, smaller returns = fewer robberies, cheques, when was the last time you used one, for many cheques are a relic of a bygone age as is cheque fraud.
Violent crime is believed to be seriously under reported and it is not uncommon for people in A&£ with stab wounds and the like to refuse the nurses and doctors permission to inform the police.
So, all in all, crime is down, the chances of being a victim are down and it has almost nothing to do with government policy.
Now let's think of Labour's criminal justice policy.
We have a criminal justice act almost on an annual basis, often repealing their previous laws before they've come into force. The consequence is uncertainty and wasted effort and costs training folk for things that do not come to pass.
We've had reform of law that wasn't in need of reform.
We've had thousands of new offences and thousands more prisoners.
If there's one thing, other than the economy, which Labour have shown that they can't be trusted with it is criminal justice policy.
9 March 2010 2:35PM
Knife and gun crime is rampant across the country. Dangerous dogs still kill children. Three days to get a response to a burglery. Police stations on answerphones. More parking attendants than police in major cities.
Rape convictions up 45% but not a word on better streetlighting and more police on the beat.
Most of this reads like newspapers in the fifties.
Its not going to change. Our politicians are not in the business of protecting the public. Theyre in the business of fleecing them.
9 March 2010 2:36PM
Breaking3, I don't know how many people are asked by the BCS, and it can only be a calculation based on some type of average, just like TV viewing figures. But Grayling is claiming a rise in crime, yet he doesn't explain why stuff that doesn't show up now showed up before 1997.
You (was it you who said it earlier?) made a good point about rape not being included in the BCS. Perhaps this is because it would be too traumatic to mention in an interview, as you say.
9 March 2010 2:39PM
@skorpion - this refers to a better conviction rate once the case comes to court. It's still not great, but used to be so low as to discourage many victims from reporting crimes.
9 March 2010 2:39PM
Reflexive - Its a shame that Labour had bankrupted britain leadint to all those problems. I am not a Margaret Thatcher Fan - she was too right wing for me, and she should have considered that tax cuts only benefit a few but they should not come at the expense of standards in the public sector.
However - if some vandals came in and trashed your house, you wouldnt blame the person who cleaned up afterwards would you.
Labour still hasn learnt that money doesnt grow on trees. If they could learn to live within budgets and not veer left I am sure they would govern for a long period.
9 March 2010 2:46PM
Nice to see that the Government are getting on with the business of Government and not running an election campaign on government time.
9 March 2010 2:46PM
Excellent, Johnson was asked to volunteer the Cabinet for the DNA database.
Seeing police in some areas have been arresting innocent people because they look like criminals and should be on the database, I suggest they arrest the Cabinet- because they look like criminals as well.
9 March 2010 2:48PM
If the research reltes to people re-offending how does that relate to people who are arrested but innocent.
9 March 2010 2:51PM
Yet they are nine points ahead - a damning insight if ever there was one.
9 March 2010 2:54PM
Apart from the fact that a house of commons authority agrees with the tories. So However you cut it apart from that way.
9 March 2010 2:54PM
Why does anyone bother to read what the Guardian report. They have to support this government to stay alive. See what happens when their jobs for the boy?s advertising comes to an end in public sector cutbacks.
9 March 2010 2:57PM
Nemynakht,
yeah, this is an incredibly silly tactic, to tell people they're stupid. I'm not impressed with the Tory approach to stats (rememeber when they compared Britain to The Wire?) but the brave stance they've taken on DNA is turning into a vote winner. It's part of the reason they're ahead on the issue.
9 March 2010 3:05PM
...not always for the better, I suspect.
9 March 2010 3:10PM
Yes labour are now seen as the party who have diminished civil rights, supported the criminals over the victims and let europe run riot with our laws.....
9 March 2010 3:11PM
No mention of drugs policy - what a surprise. Discrimination is something both two main parties support, clearly.
9 March 2010 3:26PM
I would happily volunteer to be on a DNA database, as long as the government pledged to use it also to allow British scientists to undertake further research and develop new technologies here. I have done nothing wrong and wouldnt mind being on a database - they can have my fingerprints too if thy want them - however I would not want it to be compulsory as I appreciate that some people would not trust the Government to handle data properly or run a database without evil intent!!!
9 March 2010 4:18PM
I saw the headline and assumed this article was about Boris Johnson.
I feel cheated.
9 March 2010 4:28PM
britain as the worst crime ever under this new labour gov,and britains full prisons are the proof,and this gov giving early release to prisoners so they can make more room for new prisoners,and what we get told is fiddled figures by this underhanded gov.
9 March 2010 4:32PM
Who decided that Prisoners with determinate sentences would automatically be released half way through their sentence....er the Labour Government.
Crime and disorder is one of many arenas where Labour have catastrophically failed to get to grips with a situation out of control.
Let's remember that the Labour Government are masters of spin and subterfuge therefore I wouldn't trust a damn thing they say.
I have never known such an atmosphere of fear in the country, no wonder pubs are going out of business, nothing to do with recession, discerning grown ups are just not prepared to run the gauntlet anymore.
Labour's credibility is in complete tatters, how can you possibly get to grips with crime and a broken society ( DC is right ) when you have a bunch of ineffectual invertabrates who live in a safe closeted world a million miles away from the nightmare that is urban Britain.
The solution is very simple, more Prisons, much longer sentences and detention camps for problem families.......deal with the Scrote element and crime falls dramatically
9 March 2010 4:33PM
Expenses scandals...Drugs policy that is laughable...asbos that don't work/// Ah yes, another round of Yah Boo I'm better than you...from a mediocre Home Secretary in a rotting government
9 March 2010 4:34PM
This comment has been removed by a moderator. Replies may also be deleted.
9 March 2010 4:35PM
This comment has been removed by a moderator. Replies may also be deleted.
9 March 2010 4:35PM
The Tories twisted the stats to get the lie they wanted and the expect everyone to swallow it, oh how novel.
How many times was it they fiddled the unemployment figures again?
9 March 2010 4:37PM
It's a pity that the people in government tend not to be the most intelligent on the whole.
There would be no DNA database controversy had it been introduced as a screening method at the birth of all children and justified on medical grounds.
Some facts about crime and criminals:
- 50% of male and 70% of female prisoners have no qualifications
- 2/3 of prisoners have numeracy skills lower than that expected of 11 year olds 82% have literacy skills at this low level
- 70% of prisoners suffer from 2 or more mental disorders
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/briefings/snsg-04334.pdf
@Breaking3
How do we know? Are we using paranormal senses, maybe divining the truth from chicken entrails, reading tea leaves?
The only statistics we have show that crime is down in almost all areas. In those areas where there is no evidence a claim that crime is going up cannot be verified and this is Grayling's problem - he has no facts to back up his arguments unless he makes some up.
9 March 2010 4:38PM
There should be more discipline in prisons. Bans on mobile phones (se up phone blocking to a point where it doesnt interfere with buildings outside the prison. Basic Internet access (wikipedia should suffice), no TV, plenty of books to read. no early parole for 'good behaviour'.
Sod human rights, they gave them up when they commited the crimes.
9 March 2010 4:40PM
make people not want to commit a crime and the crime rate will fall.
9 March 2010 4:42PM
If I was going to commit a serious crime I'd take a sample of somebody else's DNA with me.
It would be the first stage in my planning process.
Thankfully I'm not but if someone did this surely the wrong person would go prison:
And the eveidence would be irrefutable! Wouldn't it?
9 March 2010 4:49PM
Didn't all officially recorded statistics become invalid post 1997?!
There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, & New Labour.
9 March 2010 5:09PM
This comment has been removed by a moderator. Replies may also be deleted.
9 March 2010 5:10PM
In the UK we have one of the highest per-capita prison population in the World, are the Tories suggesting that they will reduce crime by further increasing the prison population?